“Panic Paper” scandal in Germany

On Sunday (7/2-21), the WELT AM SONNTAG has published an article on the “Panic Paper” scandal in Germany. Its summary in the WELT.

Title of the article is Maximum Collaboration, showing BMI (Federal Ministry of the Interior) and its minister Horst Seehofer had a secret paper drafted in the first Covid-19 wave that dramatically depicted the threat. A scandal of gigantic proportions!

Original article: Maximale Kollaboration — In PT: Máxima colaboração

Mid-March 2020: Federal Minister of the Interior, Horst Seehofer, was on the edge: Christian Drosten and Lothar Wieler urgently warned: Germany was threatened with dramatic consequences if the country returned to everyday life too quickly.

Horst Seehofer sent his Secretary of State Markus Kerber into the lane. The plan was to bring together leading scientists: they should produce a paper that would then serve as legitimation for further tough political measures, beyond Easter - now known as the “panic paper”.

Markus Kerber launched a corresponding call to researchers via e-mail, 4 days later, the request was fulfilled: A classified paper, which presented the danger posed by the virus as dramatically as possible, and which quickly spread through the media.

In a "worst case scenario," they painted: If Germany did nothing, more, than a million people in the country would be dead by the end of the pandemic.

Said correspondence is available to Welt and shows exactly what happened during those critical days in March 2020, on 200 pages.

Seehofer's authority was intent on enlisting the commissioned scientists for the political purpose he had in mind - and that they were happy to heed the call. The 200 or so pages of e-mails thus prove that.

The researchers were by no means acting as independently as scientists and the federal government have been constantly emphasizing since the beginning of the pandemic - but were working toward a predetermined, fixed result dictated by politicians.

A group of lawyers, represented by Berlin attorney Niko Härting, obtained the 200 pages/emails in a months-long legal dispute. They reveal a lot about how the Federal Ministry of Interior influenced researchers & how they collaborated to portray the situation as threatening as possible.

A calculation model was needed to "get 'in front of the situation' mentally, in terms of planning, measures of a preventive & repressive nature". The secretary painted a dystopia: It was a matter of "maintaining internal security & stability of public order in Germany".

Kerber asked for secrecy: what would be discussed in these circles in the coming days should be kept confidential "outside of operationally active crisis management institutions". "Without bureaucracy. Maximum courage," Kerber wrote.

"Whether & how long the networks would continue to function reliably," the participants were to transmit telephone numbers, private e-mail addresses. Compared the situation "with Apollo 13" to Wieler: "Very difficult task, but with a happy ending due to maximum collaboration."

He set the tone for the approach that the Minister of the Interior apparently expected from the scientists he had written to: a presentation of the situation that was as threatening as possible.

The result was available only four days later: That secret paper, stamped "VS - For official use only," about the looming prospect of up to a million dead. It also said how to achieve the "desired shock effect" in society in order to avoid this worst acceptable case.

"Many seriously ill people are brought to the hospital by their relatives, but are turned away, and die agonizingly at home, gasping for breath." Thus, it is hoped to make it acceptable among citizens understanding, among other things, a "sharp but short exit restriction."

During those four days, Kerber & other high-ranking ministry officials meticulously followed the researchers' work and dictated the course of action. Correspondence shows: conference calls between Federal Ministry of the Interior & the researchers at short intervals.

The scientists also made concrete suggestions-how to address "fear and readiness to follow in the population." "Söder is intuitively right," wrote one. "The spreading sense of powerlessness must probably be held in check by the impression of strong state interventionism."

The e-mails show something else, perhaps far more serious: The scientists did not agree on the scientific assessment of the situation. They discussed among themselves, for example, which figures they should use as a basis for calculating the desired scenarios.

The question was: What assumption should be made about what percentage of infected persons in Germany would die from the virus? This value was not easy to quantify; there was little experience with the virus.

Robert Koch-Institut had just published its own model. According to it, 0.56 % of infected persons in Germany were expected to die from the virus. The RWI, however, argued for a death rate of 1.2 %.

Its responsible researcher wrote that one should argue in the paper "from the goal", namely "to show high pressure for action" and from the precautionary principle "rather worse than too good". State Secretary Kerber went along with all this.

It is conspicuous that both figures appear in the paper finally prepared by the ministry. There it says: "In a very moderate scenario, the RKI currently assumes a lethality of 0.56 percent. Further modeling uses a case mortality of 1.2 percent."

In other words, Federal Ministry of the Interior explicitly decided VS using only the Robert Koch-Institut's restrained value for its calculations - even though Wieler's agency is precisely responsible for that: providing the figures on the basis of which the government argues when planning its measures.

The ministry used the "worst case" - how many would die if life continued completely as before Corona? This is the logic of the Federal Ministry of the Interior: Because Seehofer's agency is responsible for the internal security, they always want to be prepared for the greatest possible damage.

From the point of view of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, the project was successful. State Secretary Kerber formulated on March 23: "Our paper was [...] very well received and will now find its way into the crisis cabinet of the federal government due to its high quality and prudence."

The actual authors of the so-called "panic paper" are known, it is also known that Lothar Wieler did not actively write text-parts for that paper, only served as "consultant", investigative journalist Aya Velázquez found that out via Otto Kolbl.

It's of crucial importance that all parties involved at WELT release all 200 pages of email communication concerning that matter: Niko Härting, Anette Dowideit, and Nabertronic. No sense in gatekeeping here, this is of great public interest & should be in the public domain.

It's of crucial importance that people around the globe understand this earthshaking scandal! You can help by spreading the news and by sharing this article to raise the pressure on the parties involved. Share!!!

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