My Thoughts on the Pelosi Saga

My reaction to the Pelosi Provocation I wrote at the MoA blog and present it here so friends will have my POV on the incident. There are three segments that are somewhat contextually connected:

Lots of articles at Global Times providing much to sift through. I found what lies at this article's conclusion to be the most important given everything that's been written:

"China's reaction will not just be a momentary action but will consider the whole security mechanism of Taiwan, Lü noted. When it comes to the countermeasures, the Chinese expert said the Chinese mainland will exercise its sovereignty and rights of control over the airspace on the island and adjacent sea areas around the island, to make sure no other case like 'Pelosi's visit' could happen again, and to better safeguard national sovereignty." [My Emphasis]

I note that the German government has issued a statement reported by RT, "Germany promises to help Taiwan if China attacks: Berlin says it will not allow 'a big neighbor to attack a small one.'" Given that and other predictable NATO reactions, China will be doing the right thing to seal off Taiwan as suggested above. Only by removing the question of Taiwan being Chinese will Taiwan be removed as a pawn to cause chaos, which will also help to settle the issue of the South China Sea.

While reading through all the buzz prior to Pelosi's visit, it seemed clear that China's military reaction would occur upon her exit with drastic consequences for Taiwan, some of which we've been reading for several years as possibilities. China is concerned about copycats coming from the usual suspects, UK in particular, but the German response was somewhat of a surprise given the dire straits it's currently experiencing. I'm certain that China's cutting off Taiwan will spur illegal sanctions that will blowback heavily on those making them. Trade relations with China is the only reason why the EU remains afloat. I suspect behind the scenes collusion between Russia and China to dial up the pain on EU so it further fractures as suggested by the picture here.

As we read from Lavrov during his African tour, the gathering together of the Global South is accelerating as its initial institutions are swelling with members, some that are surprising. I expect to see solidarity at the upcoming ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Cambodia this week with Blinken and cronies as the outcasts. Lavrov was correct in saying nothing would happen prior to Pelosi's visit because he knew what would transpire afterwards--China's own SMO.

I expect a partial embargo to be emplaced aimed at denying Taiwan hydrocarbon and weapons imports. All other trade will be allowed. The goal of such an op ought to be obvious. A No-Fly Zone will also be selective by only allowing transit between Taiwan and Mainland, IMO. Both controls are within China's sovereign rights. Pelosi's visit will mark the beginning of the end to the Taiwan Saga as it's removed as a geopolitical pawn.